پیش‌بینی شاخص‌های توسعه پایدار شهر تهران در افق 1404 در چارچوب یک الگوی سیستم دینامیک

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری شهرسازی، گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده فنی ومهندسی، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، تهران، ایران

2 استادیارگروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در سال‌های اخیر توجه به توسعه پایدار شهری بیش از پیش مورد توجه محققان قرار گرفته است؛ لذا این مطالعه به دنبال ارائه یک مدل پویای توسعه پایدار برای شهر تهران می‌باشد که به این منظور از یک شبیه‌سازی کامپیوتری بر مبنای رهیافت پویایی‌شناسی سیستم، توسط نرم‌افزار VENSIM استفاده شده است. با توجه به هدف مورد نظر و دسترسی به داده‌ها، الگوی طراحی‌شده از دو زیربخش اقتصاد و اجتماع و زیربخش آلودگی محیط‌زیست استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل از شبیه‌سازی در مدل پایه نشان داد که مقادیر شبیه‌سازی به‌خوبی توانسته است مقادیر واقعی متغیرهای نشان‌دهنده توسعه پایدار در شهر تهران را پیش‌بینی کند. به‌صورتی که می‌توان گفت در صورت ادامه همین روند در شهر تهران در سال 1404 جمعیت شهر تهران به نزدیک 11 میلیون نفر خواهد رسید. از طرف دیگر نتایج نشان می‌دهد که باوجود نرخ رشد تولید ناخالص در نظر گرفته‌شده برای شهر تهران، درآمد کل این شهر از ابتدای سال 1387 با مقدار 624 هزار میلیارد ریال به 315669 هزار میلیارد ریال در سال 1404 خواهد رسید. همچنین نتایج نشان دادند که انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن تا سال 1404 در شهر تهران به‌اندازه نزدیک به 100 میلیارد تن در سال خواهد رسید که این مقدار، بسیار زیاد بوده و نیاز به اتخاذ سیاست‌های مناسب زیست‌محیطی ضروری به نظر می‌رسد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Prediction of Tehran City's Sustainable Development Indicators in Iran's 20-Year National Vision (2025 Vision Plan) Using a Dynamic System Modelling Framework

نویسندگان [English]

  • Dariush Shojaei Baghini 1
  • Bijan Safavi 2
1 Ph.D. of Urban Planning, Department of Urban Planning, Technical and Engineering Faculty, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In recent years, sustainable urban development has been considered more than ever by researchers. Therefore, in the present study, it is attempted to provide a dynamic model of sustainable development for Tehran City. To this end, a computer simulation is applied based on the system dynamics approach using VENSIM software. According to the research purpose and available data, the model is developed using the two socio-economic and environmental pollution sub-sectors. From the results of the simulation in the basic model, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) The simulation values could well predict the actual values of the variables indicating the sustainable development of Tehran; (2) It can be said that if the same trend continues in Tehran until 2025, the population of Tehran will reach nearly 11 million people; (3) Despite the GDP growth rate considered for Tehran City, the total revenue of Tehran city will increase from 624 thousand billion Rials in 2008 to 315669 thousand billion Rials in 2025; and (4) The amount of carbon dioxide emitted from various uses in Tehran City will reach nearly 100 billion tons per year by 2025, which is very high and it seems essential to adopt appropriate environmental policies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • sustainable development
  • Socio-Economic Sub-Sector
  • Environmental pollution
  • dynamic system approach
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