جایگاه عوامل کالبدی در کاهش قیمت مسکن

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار شهرسازی، دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

2 پژوهشگر دوره دکتری معماری، دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

بازار مسکن در سال های گذشته از پرنوسان ترین بخش های اقتصادی کشور بوده و دوره های رکود و رونق بسیاری را تجربه کرده است. تدوین یک برنامه جامع جهت کنترل بحران مسکن نیازمند شناسایی و تحلیل عمیق ابعاد مؤثر بر افزایش قیمت مسکن و حوزه نفوذ آن ها است. براساس آمار بانک مرکزی نمودار رشد قیمت مسکن بر روند رشد تورم منطبق نیست؛ به عبارتی علاوه بر تورم عمومی، عوامل خرد و کلان بسیاری در تعیین قیمت مسکن دخالت دارند که میزان تأثیرگذاری آنها براساس دوره های رکود و رونق در بازار مسکن الگوهای متفاوتی دارد. در دست هبندی کلی این عوامل به دو دسته عوامل درون بخشی و برو نبخشی تقسیم بندی می شوند. ب همنظور توجه همه جانبه به عوامل مؤثر در قیمت مسکن از روش سیستم دینامیک استفاده کرده و نمودار حلقه علّی و معلولی مربوط به سازوکار تأثیر عوامل یاد شده در قیمت مسکن ترسیم می شود. با توجه به نمودار، قسمت عمده عوامل مصرفی از طریق تأثیر بر تعادل بین عرضه و تقاضا در بازار، قیمت مسکن را تغییر م یدهند. به این ترتیب راهکارهایی که بتوانند از طریق سرعت بخشیدن به فرآیند ساخت و تولید ساختمان های مسکونی و عرضه مسکن و یا جلوگیری از افزایش تقاضا، فاصله میان عرضه و تقاضا را محدود کنند، از سیاس تهای موفق در کاهش قیمت مسکن محسوب می شوند. این سیاست ها میتوانند در دسته های مختلف اقتصادی، اجتماعی و کالبدی ارائه شوند که در این مقاله راهکارهای کالبدی از جمله انبوه سازی، استفاده از تکنولوژی های نوین، پیش ساخته سازی، افزایش عمر مفید ساختمانهای مسکونی، ساماندهی بافت های فرسوده، طراحی مدوله و اصلاح الگوی مسکن بررسی می شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Position of Physical Factors in Housing Price Reduction

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abdolhadi daneshpour 1
  • sasan hosseini 2
1 Assistant Professor in Urban Planning, School of Architecture and Environmental Design, Iran University of Science & Technology, Tehran, Iran.
2 Ph. D candidate in Architecture, School of Architecture and Environmental Design, Iran University of Science & Technology, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In the past few years,the housing market has been one of the most fluctuating economicsectors of the country and has experienced several stagnant and revivification periods. Setting up a holistic program for controllingthe housing crisis needs a complete diagnosis and in-depth analysis of the effective dimensions of housing price in crescent and their degree of influence.One of the most economical indexes used for evaluating the housing situation in different countries, is the index of housing cost portion in a family expenditure basket which can be the base of fundamental policy-makings in the housing department. In countries with successful experiences in solving the housing problem of different stratums of the society, housing cost portion in the family expenditure basket is less than 15%, while in our country, IRAN, this portion is reported to be 53%. In other words, a high percentage of family income is used to pay the rent or to the house mortgage.  According to the statistics of The Central Bank, the diagram of housing price growth is not synchronized with the diagram of the price inflation growth and its staircase graph is fluctuating around the inflation axis. A few of the most dominant factors in outerfactors’ group are the economical ones such asliquidity, stock market index,interest rate, inflation and the per capita income. Innerfactors also include different classes like physical factors. To have a holistic overview on the factors affecting the housing prices, dynamic systems method is used and the cause-effect loop diagram related to effectiveness mechanism of the mentioned factors in housing prices is delineated. In Dynamic System, after determining the issue, a dynamic theory is shaped which explains the cause of the issue. Then,according to recognition of the relations between factors, a simulation model is designed and tested. Therefore, different policies which can contribute to solving the issue can be tested in this system and optimum solutions can be selected. In this paper, it was attempted to investigate the fundamental causes of housing prices increase and the trend of factors influencing each other and the housing prices by means of proposing a cause-effect diagram.Analyzing the diagram indicates that usage of modern technologies can accelerate construction and reduce the need forconsumption factors. It also shows that increment in the pace of constructing leads to increase in supplying housing and attracting investments to contribute to the construction processes. Transferring part of the liquidity to the efficient part of construction will be the result too. Increment in the consumption factors leads to increase in construction costs.As the result of the finalized price of the housing; the pace of construction will go down. Irregular increment in the consumption factors due to the weakness of housing scheme, reduction in the housing demand, increment in adrift investments and increase in false demand in the housing sector are the other results of the diagram evaluation. As a part of dynamic management needs and flow of dynamic decisions, the focal point of researches in this field must not stand on individual decisions and the decision making policies must be the center of the attention. Therefore, it is realized that most of these factors change the price of the houses due to their effect on the balance between supply and demand. This means that whenever a factor is able to increase the proportion of the demand to the supply, it can increase the housing prices and vice versa.As the result, the approaches which can limit the supply-demand gap by accelerating the residential buildings construction and houses, supplying or preventing the demand increscent are counted as successful policies in reducing the housing price. These policies can be presented in different economical, social and physical classes. In this paper, the target is the physical approaches which can be investigated more from the architectural viewpoint; approaches which can provide the base of increase in supply and decrease in demand in housing marketplace by means of accelerating the construction processes and extending the buildings lifetime. In this case, approaches such as housing development, the usage of new technologies, prefabrication, increasing the beneficial lifetime of residential buildings, repairing the old textures, modular designing and housing schema amendment are proposed and discussed. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • House Price
  • Settlement
  • Physical factors
  • system dynamics

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