ارائه مدلی جهت شناسایی بهره وران کلیدی در برنامه های شهری، نمونه موردی: ناحیه جوادیه منطقه 16 شهرداری تهران

Urban deteriorated fabrics are among the most important issues of urban settlements. In development of urbanization at the level of country and consequently rush of population of villages and small cities to metropolises, existing cities which did not have capacity of acceptance of population overload have faced with numerous problems. Eroded and problematic urban fabrics are among the problems that afflict most cities of Iran. Such fabrics are faced with a set of environmental, physical, social and economic problems as well as unsustainability. In order to complete the planning process in these zones, we need to assess and analyze them and identify present benefits and defects. Javadieh neighborhood is also one of the problematic unsustainable urban fabrics. Javadieh neighborhood with an area equivalent to 120.6 hectare as a residential area is located in the border of expressway axes of Navab and Tondgoyan and Main Street of Dasht Azadegan in south corridor of railway. According to statistics of 1996, 48047 people were living in this neighborhood. Javadieh population currently consists of 44 thousand people. The mentioned neighborhood has a grid network system: its main neighborhood and local axes are in north-south direction and other secondary passages are fed by these axes. Main access of this neighborhood is from north direction and from Dasht Azadegan and Noori Street (North of Javadieh). The main function of Javadieh at present situation is mainly residential in a way that more than 53% of its area is allocated to residential area and about 27% is allocated to passages network. What distinguishes strategic planning from
other kinds of planning are application specific procedures for targeted data gathering, methodical analysis and goal setting, participation of main decision makers and decision takers, strategic options setting and evaluation, study the future consequences of decisions and current activities and above all emphasis on successful implementation. Although
strategic planning introduced to solve comprehensive planning problems- include inflexibility of plans that prepared with use of comprehensive planning approach- but in traditional view of this approach (strategic planning) critical uncertainties and complex situations in contemporary cities were not considered and same as comprehensive planning approach, this plan fails when it comes to implement. In traditional approaches to urban planning, future is predicted based on past trends using qualitative computing regardless of the presence of key and active forces of the society with the assumption of constant trends. One of the main reasons for introduction of strategic planning versus comprehensive  planning is inflexibility of plans prepared based on comprehensive planning approach, in which even small scales are determined and prescribed for the city. However, although traditional strategic planning is not as strict as comprehensive planning, and, instead of preparing small scale maps, it develops strategies and action plans for targets based on the vision, this approach is also problematic in terms of flexibility as it just considers one future and does not take uncertainties and variable environment into account. So, to eliminate the current problem, consider several scenarios for the city and plan for a wide range of possible futures, “scenario planning” as a new approach to strategic planning will be introduced. Identifying key stakeholders is one of most important steps of scenario planning approach that has significant impact on success urban plans. One of the essential needs to reach successful urban designs and plans is an active participation of stakeholders in both preparation and implementation of plans. Prerequisite of having an active participation in urban plans is identifying all key and leading stakeholders. In order to identify them, some models and methods are introduced. First off, the models were surveyed and reviewed by documentary and internet resources. Accordingly and due to proximity of the meaning of some indicators and to avoid overlaps, they have been merged and essential indicators for identifying key stakeholders are extracted. Therefore, due to extracted indicators, the links between indicators and their relations with stakeholder, key stakeholders in Javadieh district are identified. In order to identify key stakeholders in Javadieh, network analysis method and Super Decision software are used. The results show that the key indicators are their interest and tendency toward a project, rules and legitimacy, power and their ability to influence, emergency (sensitivity of time and how much it is vital) and also the municipality of Tehran, Municipality of Javadieh district, government, local or neighborhood council, sellers and shopkeepers, investors (above neighborhood scale), real states and local builders. These are indeed the most impressive and important stakeholders that are identified in Javadieh district.